Full ResearchJuly 18, 2026

The Reload

How the pin rebuilt in seven sessions, stalled forty points under the June top, and rolled off at July expiration

8-part reconstruction of July 1–17: two dead-flat closes to open the month, then a call-led rebuild (walls migrating $7,630 → $7,700, measured VIX floor 14.96), the end of the US–Iran ceasefire flushed to $7,421 and reclaimed inside a session, a CPI relief pop to a $7,581 window high 39 points under the June top, and the roll-off into the July 17 monthly settlement on a book that had inverted to 71% puts. The gamma sign flipped five times in ten sessions: neither the damper of May nor the amplifier of June, but an alternator. Includes two corrections to the June paper.

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Full ResearchJuly 4, 2026

The Expiry

How the long-gamma pin finally rolled off, and June round-tripped $7,600 to $7,238 and back

8-part reconstruction of June: a low-vol top at $7,620 on a book already turned net-short gamma, the May-jobs crack on June 5 (−2.64%), the negative-gamma flush to an intraday $7,238, the FOMC break, and the late-June decay regime as the walls compressed toward spot on a thinning near-money book. The dealer book rotates pinned → expand → decay; the pin the prior three papers kept flagging finally expires. Per-session SPX tables, wall structure, and full methodology. (Two figures corrected July 18, 2026; see the editor’s note in the paper.)

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Full ResearchJuly 4, 2026

The Pin That Climbed

How a long-gamma dealer book survived its two flagged tests and migrated three hundred points higher

8-part reconstruction of the May 9–29 window: the April CPI print absorbed on the upside (May 13, +0.56% to $7,444), the monthly OPEX push through $7,500 (May 14), the lone post-expiry gamma-off day, the mid-month dip that held at the rebuilt put wall, and the grind to a $7,579 close on the most compressed volatility of the entire rally. Per-session SPX tables, call-wall migration from $7,400 to $7,750, and full methodology.

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Market ForensicMay 9, 2026

The Test the Rally Passed

Three weeks above $7,000 and the first downside catalyst that didn’t break the structure

On April 21 the S&P 500 dropped 85 points intraday, the largest single-session decline since the V. By Friday April 24 it printed a new all-time closing high. Across the next two weeks vol compressed from 19 to 17 and the index advanced another 3.83% on six new closing records. This is what the options market did during a quiet period that wasn’t supposed to be quiet.

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Full ResearchMay 9, 2026

After the V

A reported analysis of the April 18 – May 8, 2026 SPX market structure

8-part reconstruction of the post-rally regime: how the long-gamma dealer book absorbed the April 21 ceasefire-expiry test, the slow VIX compression sequence from 19 to below 17, the migration of the call wall from $7,125 to $7,400, and the new put-wall structure under spot. Per-session SPX/VIX tables, dealer-book transition methodology, and a watchlist for the May 13 CPI through the June FOMC. Full methodology and sourcing.

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Market ForensicApril 18, 2026

Thirteen Days That Broke the Record

How the S&P 500 rallied from an Iran-war low to a new all-time high

On March 30 the S&P 500 touched $6,316.91. Thirteen trading days later it printed $7,147.52, a new all-time high. The Wells Fargo CIO called it "one of the fastest recoveries ever on record." This is what the options market was doing the entire time, reported from our live telemetry.

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Full ResearchApril 18, 2026

The V in 23 Sessions

A reported analysis of the March 17 – April 17, 2026 SPX rally

8-part reconstruction of the Iran-war drawdown and the 13-session rally to new all-time highs. Session-by-session price, VIX, and macro catalysts; dealer positioning and gamma-regime transitions across our intraday SPX observations; six-tell diagnostic; historical-comparables context with Wells Fargo CIO attribution. Full methodology and sourcing.

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